Expectation and impact: overestimated in the short run, underestimated in the long run
About this app
Amara’s observation as a picture: expectations of a new technology shoot up and fall back in disappointment, while the impact rises quietly and overtakes them. Railways, electricity, the internet, smartphones and AI today with sourced key dates and an open band for the future. Plus a scale with nine cards: what is overestimated and what is underestimated about AI, each with a counter-spell.
With explain mode: an AI tutor walks you through the app, points out what matters in the scene and answers your questions.
Amara’s observation
The futurist Roy Amara (1925–2007) is quoted as saying that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. This is known as Amara’s law. It describes an experience that has repeated itself many times. A typical course: expectation first shoots up, drops in disappointment and recovers. The actual impact grows quietly and steadily and at some point overtakes the expectation.
What the app shows
Two lines run across the years: expectation and impact. Where expectation is on top, castles in the air stand in the fog; where impact overtakes it, a flood rises. Five examples are ready, each with four moments and sourced key figures: the British railway mania, the electrification of factories, the dotcom bubble around 2000, the smartphone from 2007 and AI since ChatGPT in November 2022. For AI the line ends in October 2026; after that an open band shows the range. It is not a forecast.
Try it yourself
Choose an example, tap one of the four moments or drag your finger across the picture. In the second part there is a pair of scales with nine cards. Guess first whether a statement about AI is overestimated or underestimated, for example “AI knows everything” or the power demand of data centres. Each card shows what lies behind it and a counter-spell: what you can actually do. The sources are listed in the app’s Sources panel.
Frequently asked questions
- What is Amara’s law?
- The observation that we overestimate the effect of a new technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. It is attributed to the futurist Roy Amara and counts as a rule of experience.
- Is AI overestimated or underestimated?
- Both happen. People often overestimate that AI knows everything, thinks like a human or is neutral. They often underestimate how much everyday work has already changed, how fast the tools improve and how easily voices and pictures can be faked. How it continues is open.
- What can the history of electricity teach us?
- After the first power stations, many factories merely replaced the steam engine with one large electric motor. The big impact came when factories were redesigned and each machine got its own motor. According to the economic historian Paul A. David, the share of electric drives in US factories rose from under 5 percent (1899) to over 50 percent (1919).
- Where do the figures in the app come from?
- From the sources named in the app, such as ITU, IDC, GSMA, the International Labour Organization, the International Energy Agency and figures from OpenAI. The curves themselves are drawn in simplified form and have no unit.
Subject: Understanding AI
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