Overconfidence test

About this app

Give a 90 % interval for each of ten estimation questions. Calibrated would be nine hits — most manage far fewer. Interval bars with the true answer expose the overconfidence.

Subject: Data & decisions

More from Data & decisions

• Anchoring effect
• Benford's law
• Berkson's paradox
• Cherry-picking: base period
• Cherry-picking: base period 2.0
• The three-cowboy duel (truel)
• The three-cowboy duel 2.0
• The three means

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